Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE:TM) Stock Forecast

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This content represents the writer’s opinions and research and is not intended to be taken as financial advice. The information presented is general in nature and may not meet the specific needs of any individual or entity. It is not intended to be relied upon as a professional or financial decision-making tool.

Toyota Motor Corporation (ticker symbol: TM) is an automobile manufacturer company headquartered in Aichi, Japan. Toyota is known for producing the most reliable cars, which also is the reason why various Taxi companies prefer to acquire Toyota cars for their services. Founded in 1937 by Kiichiro Toyoda, the corporation is the second-biggest automaker by revenue worldwide (with about USD 276 billion in 2021) and the largest in Japan. Akio Toyoda is currently the CEO of Toyota. The company is currently employing around 360 000 employees worldwide. Toyota’s main competitors include Volkswagen Group, Renault-Nissan, and General Motors.

In 2024, Toyota Motors continues to exhibit dynamic stock market performance. Initially public on NYSE in 1984 at $7.14/share, it reached a high of $206.11 on Jan 13, 2023. After a dip to $130.29 in late 2023, the stock is now trending upwards again.

The latest financial results show interesting trends, with revenue and deliveries seeing a significant increase, despite challenges in operating profits due to global economic factors. Toyota’s resilience amidst manufacturing disruptions and market volatility underscores its robust business model.

Toyota (TM) Stock Forecast 2024

As we embark on 2024, Toyota (TM) stands at a pivotal juncture in the automotive industry. The company’s adaptation to evolving market demands, especially in the realm of electric and hybrid vehicles, positions it uniquely for potential growth. Despite the headwinds of 2023, including supply chain disruptions and economic uncertainties, Toyota has shown resilience. Its commitment to innovation, seen in its investment in green technologies and autonomous driving, suggests a forward-looking strategy that could appeal to investors.

Financially, Toyota’s robust global presence and diversified product line provide a buffer against market volatility. The company’s financial health, indicated by its balance sheet and cash flow statements, will be crucial in weathering any economic fluctuations. Additionally, Toyota’s strategic partnerships and expansions into new markets, particularly in Asia and Europe, could be key drivers of growth.

However, investors should also be aware of potential challenges. Global economic trends, including interest rates and inflation, will play a significant role in Toyota’s performance. The automotive industry’s competitive landscape is rapidly evolving, with new players entering the electric vehicle market. Toyota’s ability to maintain its market share amidst these changes will be vital.

In conclusion, while Toyota’s stock forecast for 2024 shows promise, it is intertwined with global economic conditions and industry-specific trends. Investors are advised to closely monitor these factors and Toyota’s strategic responses to them. As always, it is recommended to consult with financial advisors for personalized investment advice.

In 2024, several factors could influence Toyota’s stock price. Key considerations include:

  1. Global Economic Conditions: Economic stability, inflation rates, and interest rate changes can impact consumer purchasing power and investment trends.
  2. Automotive Industry Dynamics: Competitiveness in the electric vehicle market and advancements in autonomous driving technology will play a crucial role.
  3. Supply Chain Management: Toyota’s ability to navigate and adapt to ongoing supply chain challenges could significantly affect its operational efficiency and profitability.
  4. Regulatory Changes: Environmental regulations and trade policies, particularly in key markets like the U.S., Europe, and Asia, will influence Toyota’s business strategy and costs.
  5. Technological Innovation: Investment in and adoption of new technologies, especially in clean energy and digitalization, will be essential for future growth.
  6. Consumer Trends: Changing consumer preferences towards sustainable and technologically advanced vehicles will impact sales.

These elements are interconnected and can have a profound effect on Toyota’s financial performance and stock valuation in 2024.

Our Previous Toyota (TM) Stock Forecast

We maintain our previous Toyota (TM) Stock Forecast for the sake of transparency and to allow our readers to evaluate our market analysis from that period.

Toyota (TM) Stock Forecast 2023

While Toyota has foretold its operating profit forecast of USD 17 billion for the upcoming year 2023, it cut its production goal for the year to 9.2 million vehicles from 9.7 million vehicles. That said, profits are projected to remain down by about 20% versus last year due to supply chain-related headwinds, which eventually will lead to either the stock price descending or remaining in the same area as in December 2022 – at least for the beginning of 2023.

Toyota made 2 negative estimates regarding EPS in 2023 in the first and second quarters. In Q1 a negative surprise of -5.79% was reported. Nevertheless, a positive quarterly revenue report was witnessed for the same period. The Q2 report was much worse – about -30% which leads to the expectation and hope by the market participants that Q3 will be positive and will rebound to balance the most recent negative quarterly reports. An estimate of 3.78 EPS and 65.46 billion in revenue growth is reported, which are expected to be surpassed. This of course will lead to a bullish movement in the stock price.

The Wall Street analyst predicted that Toyota Motor’s share price could reach USD 179.41 by the end of 2023. The average Toyota Motor stock price prediction forecasts a potential upside of 25.16% from the current share price of USD 143.34.

Taking a deeper look into the forecast in the company’s financial statements, we see a mostly positive outlook. Toyota Motor’s current yearly Earnings Per Share (EPS) is USD 12.94. On average, analysts forecast that TM’s EPS will be USD 16.93 for 2023, USD 18.74 for 2024 and In 2025, TM’s EPS is forecasted to hit USD 21.21 which should have a positive impact on the stock price if realized.

Furthermore, Toyota Motor’s forecast that its annual earnings growth rate for 2023 is at 17.91% which would beat the US Auto Manufacturers industry’s average forecast earnings growth rate of 12.06%.

The technical analyses show different results in Toyota’s case. The analysis was carried out by looking at 26 different indicators (i.e. Oscillators, Moving Averages). The Oscillators mostly had an all in all neutral outcome, e.g. for Oscillators which showed neutral results: Relative Strength Index, Average Directional Index, etc. With 2 buy signals (Momentum) and 1 sell signal (MACD).

Moving forward to Moving Averages the results were different: with 9 sell, 1 neutral and 5 buy signals. Wrapping up, the technical analysis shows that the stock is with a “Hold” rating at the moment and for the first few months of 2023.

Let’s try to understand the future stock movement by breaking down the latest income statement, balance sheet results, and production news.

  • Looking at the income statements of the previous years we can see that there was a pull-back of the stock price as the income statement in 2020 resulted in USD 500 million less income than the year before. Contrary to the income statement of 2021 which lead to an increase in TM’s share price as the total revenue rose. This gives a positive outlook for the end of 2023 and the start of 2023 as the income statement of 2022 is expected to come in better than what was seen in 2022.
  • On the other side looking at the balance sheet we can see that it has a relatively smaller impact on the share price volatility, as the balance sheet of 2021 showed came with reduced assets and more liabilities in comparison to the balance sheet of 2020, which nevertheless did not have any large impact on the share price of the company.

Toyota Stock 2022

The year-to-date result of the TM stock performance is -20.91% compared to the market result of -10.91% based on the NYSE Composite Index as an overall market performance indicator. The overall market downturn certainly caused some part of the price decrease in Toyota’s stock in 2022, however, there are also other factors such as the company’s inability to meet the consensus earnings each quarter generating a negative surprise for each consecutive quarter in 2022.

As already mentioned above, there were two negative quarter earnings which caused the drop in the share price. However, the payment of dividends on 29 November 2022 probably sent a positive vibe to the market making investors more optimistic as the stock has been rising ever since.

All in all a positive outlook for the end of the year is to be recognized when looking at the chart, as the stock is on a bullish run as we write this. If the expectations are met with the income statement and the total revenue then the stock should stay on its run and rise steadily afterward. Otherwise, a further weakening in the stock price is possible.

Toyota Stock 2021

The year 2021 started on a positive note for the TM stock. Toyota had 4 EPS reports, which all resulted in positive surprises and most of them followed a slight increase in share value. Overall, the share price rose 22.83% in 2021. Even though it was a good year for TM, the annual earnings statement still came in negative by -1.13%. Nevertheless, it was higher than the estimate for 2023.

Toyota also helped some health and humanitarian organizations in the same year which was also part of its ESG commitment that was positively reflected in the stock price. Collaborating with the International Rescue Committee and Community Jameel, Toyota Motors helped to conquer the humanitarian crisis in Lebanon. Another investment, which also was a donation by Toyota, has been the provisioning of the first refrigerated vehicles for the safe transportation of vaccines to obtain WHO’s performance, quality, and safety pre-qualification. Both of these news resulted in a positive impact on its share price.

Toyota Stock 2020

Toyota reacted surprisingly to COVID-19 in 2020, as the firm invested in health companies and started generating profit from such products as hand sanitizers. This fast reaction made TM survive the financial crisis almost unharmed, as their total revenue decreased only by -6%, which in comparison to other companies, is a relatively good result. While experiencing some turbulence and headwind in 2020, TM still managed to achieve an increase in its share price by 13.21% for the year.


Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) is one of the world’s leading automakers, with a diversified portfolio of products and services. The company has shown remarkable resilience in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, posting strong sales and earnings growth in 2023.

Toyota is also investing heavily in electrification, autonomous driving, and hydrogen fuel cell technologies, which are expected to drive its future growth and competitiveness. Analysts have a moderate buy rating on TM. TM has a dividend yield of 2.42%, which is higher than the industry average of 1.64%.

Toyota is projected to produce about 10.3 million vehicles globally in 2024, renewing its record annual production for the second consecutive year. Toyota is also expected to reach a revenue of $196 billion in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 1.88%.

Toyota is a solid long-term investment for investors who are looking for a stable and reliable dividend payer with growth potential.

FAQ: 2024 Toyota Stock Performance Outlook

What are the expectations for Toyota’s stock performance in 2024?

In 2024, Toyota’s stock performance is anticipated to be influenced by global economic conditions, the company’s innovation in hybrid and electric vehicles, and its response to competitive market dynamics. While exact predictions are challenging, the focus will be on Toyota’s strategies to maintain its market position amidst evolving consumer preferences and technological advancements.

How will Toyota’s involvement in electric vehicles affect its market position in 2024?

Toyota’s venture into electric vehicles is a significant factor in its 2024 market positioning. As the automotive industry shifts towards sustainability, Toyota’s progress in EV technology, market penetration, and response to environmental regulations will play a crucial role. The company’s ability to innovate and adapt to these changes will likely impact investor confidence and stock valuation.

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