If Bitcoin is known for anything, it is its volatility. With the massive swings, one expert says don’t be surprised to see this crypto price surge to $1 million this decade. Bitcoin is limited in numbers, it is more scarce than many precious metals, and big pension funds are starting to recognize its future, according to Fred Pye, President, and CEO at 3iQ.
Pye was quoted as saying Bitcoin is the most successful investment of all times. Referring to Bitcoins market cap, he said nothing has ever gone from zero to $1 trillion in ten years or less. When asked to draw a comparison between Bitcoin and Ethereum, he compares Bitcoin to gold and Ethereum to copper.
“Gold is well known as a store of wealth. Both gold and Bitcoin are scare commodities now, give it two years and Bitcoin may be twice as rare as gold,” he said.
“Ethereum, on the other hand, tends to act more along the lines of copper. If copper prices go up, it is an indication of a healthy economy. Likewise, should Ethereum goes up, the overall health of the digital economy goes with it,” he added.
Massive price surges of Bitcoin are made possible because of the finite supply and the halving process. Every four years, Bitcoin halves. The last Bitcoin halving was in May of 2020. When past halvings are analyzed, there is reason to believe Bitcoin may hit $100k within the next two years, and $1 million four years later.
Every four years, the supply of Bitcoin is cut in half. In the past, every time it halved, the price went up to a factor of ten. So, $100 became $1,000 and $1,000 became $10,000. As it stands now, the price is well on its way to $100,000. Four years later, six years from now, the price, everything else being equal, should go from $100k to $1 million. If the properties of scarcity play out as they should, the next jump would be $10 million.
The massive sell-off of Bitcoin that was witnessed in May is, according to Pye, “perfectly normal.”
When May came to a close, Bitcoin had tumbled from an all-time high of almost $65, 000 in April to near $32,000. What started to snowball effect was China’s attempt to ban the use of Bitcoin for transactions, as well as mining. As China employs currency controls, it is a concern. Now, this trillion-dollar asset that can’t be controlled is one reason why so many people love it.
However, the move made by China does not have an impact on large institutional investors and pension funds. These investors are performing due diligence, it is expected that in time they will begin to invest, a move that may be explosive for Bitcoin, and crypto as a whole.
The Real Decision Makers Are Now Involved
Up until this time, Bitcoin has attracted “cowboy” style hedge funds and investors with Elon Musk type of personality. The real money stayed well away. Now, the decision-makers who genuinely control a great deal of the world’s wealth are beginning their due diligence.
The big players are not going to jump straight in, it often takes some time before they become actively involved. It is not because they are lacking interest in crypto, it is more that Bitcoin currently does not have a place in their investment policies.
Current investment policies have never had to factor in a new asset class or technology. There is a great deal of talk about stocks, bonds, precious metals, and other commodities, but Bitcoin does not fit any existing class. To take full advantage of crypto, investors have to revise their policies. This may not happen overnight, but Pye believes it may happen sooner rather than later.
This reticence on the part of big investors is great news for the average investor. Big players can be buy Bitcoin when it reaches $1 million, but chances are good that by then, it may be too late for the “little” guy.
Owing crypto does not mean gold has no place in one’s portfolio. Gold is an integral part of a future-proof portfolio.
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